Can the MLS Playoff Structure Be Improved?

Like all American sports leagues, MLS isn’t afraid to try novel approaches to their competitive set-up. We’ve seen lots of different ideas for the playoff format: best-of-three series, first team to five points, and the classic two-legged series decided by total goals. The good and bad aspects of these formats have been dissected extensively.

Currently, the top seven teams in each Conference qualify for the playoffs and are placed in a bracket in a single-elimination format. The two Conference champions receive a bye into the second round as a reward for their regular-season accomplishment. Whether this extra time off actually confers an advantage to the teams finishing in first place is questionable, after the Colorado Rapids (Western Conference champions) and the New England Revolution (Eastern Conference champions) were both eliminated in their respective opening matches. Brian Straus of Sports Illustrated did a deep dive into the topic recently.

MLS introduced the concept of giving Conference champions a free pass into the second round of the playoffs in 2011. During that time, just two champions have reached the MLS Cup final. Is the bye a reward or is it a new hurdle for teams who excelled during the regular season?

One of the pitfalls that MLS has faced is setting up a playoff schedule that maintains fans’ interest. That sounds odd, doesn’t it? Why would the league’s most important matches have a difficult time keeping fans engaged? The biggest problem is the FIFA calendar. MLS ends its season in the fall and FIFA has established windows for international matches in early October and early November each year. When MLS used two-legged series in the playoffs, there simply weren’t enough days to stage playoff games in October and November and avoid a conflict with a FIFA international window. Interrupting the playoffs for over a week is a real momentum killer. By time the international matches were completed, it’s little wonder that fans forgot that the playoffs were still running.

In 2019, MLS hit on the idea of the single-elimination tournament. The best part of this format is that the league managed to squeeze the entire tournament into the period between the October and November FIFA international windows. The regular season ended prior to the October window and the MLS Cup winner was crowned before the start of the November window. A straight knockout format increases the tension for every match, compared to the conventional two-legged series. Because the series comes down to total goals, the tactics were often reduced to transforming two matches into what was essentially one 180-minute match. When it’s win or go home, the stakes are raised in an immediate way.

Colorado and New England earned a bye into the second round of the 2021 playoffs because they finished at the top of the table in their respective Conferences. MLS completed the regular season on November 7 and the league shut down for the November FIFA international window. Colorado played their first match on November 25 and New England joined the tournament on November 30. Both teams also earned home-field advantage throughout the Conference portion of the tournament. The extra time off and playing at home did neither team any good in the end.

Is the playoff format the problem? In a single-elimination tournament, a random, unexpected result can change everything. The NCAA basketball tournament generates lots of interest and David versus Goliath matchups that produce upsets are a charming aspect of that competition.

But the goal of any playoff structure is to determine who is the best team. That can be accomplished with a single elimination tournament but keeping two of the best teams in the league on the sidelines for three weeks or more before they play their first match is not an effective way to do it. Players only stay sharp when they are playing games on a consistent schedule. The Portland Timbers and New York City FC already had a playoff victory under their belts when they faced Colorado and New England, respectively. That positive momentum worked to their advantage when they took on opponents who might have lost their edge by being idle for so long. That this trend has been so strong for so long is a strong indication that the playoff format does not determine who is the best team.

My proposal is to create a group stage that produces four semi-finalists, who then compete knockout style to determine a champion. This can be accomplished within the same timeframe that MLS currently uses for its single-elimination tournament.

Here’s how it works. The top eight teams in each Conference qualify for the playoffs. Wait, more teams in the playoffs? Aren’t there too many already? A valid question, seeing that mediocre teams are already allowed into the playoffs. Vancouver, for example, reached the playoffs with just 12 wins in 34 matches. Because playoff qualification already lets pretenders join the party, I don’t know that adding two more unexceptional teams seriously dilutes the quality of the playoffs any further. And this proposed group stage is clean and easy when there are 16 teams.

The teams would be arranged into four groups of four teams each, as shown in the table below.

Every team plays every other team in the group once. Regular season point totals determine who plays at home. First- and second-place teams play all three group matches at home. Third- and fourth-place teams plays two matches at home. Fifth- and sixth-place teams play one match at home, and seventh- and eighth-place teams play all three matches away. This distribution of home games rewards teams for their regular-season performance.

The group winners would advance to the semifinal knockout stage. The East-West separation could be maintained by having the winners of Groups A and B in one semifinal and the winners of Groups C and D in the other. Another way to do it would be to rank the four group winners by regular-season points and have #1 play #4 and #2 play #3.

Using the calendar window for the 2021 MLS playoffs, which was November 20 through December 11, here’s how the schedule could look.

Group Stage, Round 1: November 20/21
Group Stage, Round 2: November 24/25
Group Stage, Round 3: November 29/30
Group winners meet in semifinals: December 4/5
MLS Cup Final: December 11

All teams would still have two weeks off between Decision Day and the start of playoffs. Playing three games in nine days during the Group Stage is doable.

The biggest benefit of this format is the removal of randomness affecting the playoffs. Any team that finishes at the top of its group will have earned their place in the semifinals. A fluke result might occur in a one-game format, but it’s unlikely to see three fluke results during a round-robin competition. It’s als0 less likely to see a bottom seed advance by failing to create any discernible offense, as Real Salt Lake did when they registered zero shots in eliminating Seattle. The four group winners will undoubtedly be the best four teams and any of them would be worthy champions.

The other benefit is that it creates an incentive for teams to climb the standings in September and October, because they have the opportunity to increase the number of home matches in the playoffs.

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